Food, agriculture, and forest products

A wave of changes

Changes in the past have led to significant disruptions in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector that forced companies to adapt or decline. Climate change has the potential to create another wave of massive disruptions.

We’ve developed a set of scenarios that explores possible futures for the food, agriculture and forest products sectors. These scenarios help companies better understand potential market and environmental implications of future changes due to climate change.

Four examples of potential disruptions

Deforestation

In the past, deforestation consistently increased. In contrast, land protection and carbon pricing policies could limit conversion of all natural land, reversing deforestation and halting biodiversity loss.

Proteins

In the past, meat production has steadily risen with global GDP. However, the future could take a wide range of pathways as a result of climate policies, societal shifts, and innovation.

Food Prices

Food prices significantly increased from 1990 to today. Agricultural innovation, land conservation and additional climate policies could create a range of future price trajectories.

GHG Emissions

Emissions from agriculture, land use, deforestation and land conversion have not budged between 2000 and today. Climate policies and innovation could produce a range of trajectories for the decarbonization of the sector.

Adapting to pressure

How the food we eat is produced must change to adapt to climate and demographic pressures. Scenario analysis can help prepare a company for these potential future changes

Scenario analysis allows companies to:

Strategize

Conduct strategic planning to identify investment, physical risk mitigation opportunities and future policy options.

Identify opportunities

Identify new business opportunities in core or adjacent markets that will be affected by the transition, identify emerging innovations, and examine plausible future demand for a specific product.

Disclose

Complete public reporting and disclosure requirements.

Communicate

Communicate with stakeholders to boost investor confidence and engage consumers and employees.

These four actions can help companies improve resilience and identify areas to strengthen their strategies.