Resources & FAQ


The documents below are available to download and provide more detail on the Climate Scenario Tool, scenario design and modeling process.

For further information and related resources, you may wish to explore:

Climate Scenario Tool Guidance

Is there any guidance on how to interpret the data in the Climate Scenario Tool?

Yes, the Scenario Analysis and Application Guide, an overview of the use of climate transition scenarios to assess strategic resilience to climate risk and inform disclosures can be found here [link coming soon]. The Technical Guide, a description of the modeling methodology underlying the scenarios, can be found here [link coming soon]

Can these scenarios be used to set targets and/or create transition plans?

These scenarios provide a wide array of hypothetical, plausible futures, but are not meant to be predictive nor ideal pathways to net zero. Given this, the scenarios are less suitable for target-setting; we encourage companies to instead use the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) FLAG Guidance to set targets. However, companies can use these scenarios to test the feasibility of setting targets under different societal transition pathways. As such, scenario analysis can support companies in developing transition plans, i.e., the decarbonization plans a company implements to achieve their 1.5°C-aligned net zero commitments.

Are these nature transition scenarios?

Our scenarios do not explicitly consider nature at this moment, however agriculture, food and land use are intrinsically linked to nature given their reliance on natural capital such as biodiversity, water, and ecosystem services.

The Inevitable Policy Response is releasing climate and nature scenarios that align with our <2°C Forecast Policy Response (IPR) scenario and as such are complementary to our climate transition scenarios. 

Scenario modeling specifics

Do these scenarios consider short-term volatility?

No, these scenarios do not take short-term volatility into account and are best used for long-term scenario analysis.

Why is demand not included in the scenario outputs?

In the scenarios, production and demand are identical unless trade factors cause demand in one region to be satisfied by production from another region. As the scenarios focus on climate change transition risks, trade factors remain constant across all scenarios and the scenario differences are primarily on the production side. For this reason, the Climate Scenario Tool only provides production outputs.

Is the impact of the war in Ukraine considered?

No, the impact of the war in Ukraine is not included in these scenarios as these scenarios do not model short-term volatility.

Do these scenarios consider pests/disease?

Our land use models indirectly reflect select chronic physical impacts of climate change. For example, impacts of pests and diseases on crop production are indirectly captured through yield assumptions.

What model are these scenarios based on?

Our scenarios use the Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is an established modeling framework that has been regularly utilized by the international community to inform our understanding of the impacts associated with climate change and policies, including in IPCC reports. MAgPIE was developed and made open source by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Dietrich et al. (2019) gives an overview of the development of MAgPIE, a more than 14-year project.

Is water included in these models?

We do consider water availability and geographical suitability for the cultivation of different crops. Our model is connected to a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model which provides information on water yields and land suitability. More information on this model can be found here and information on how this connects to our MAgPIE model specifically can be found here.

Is regenerative agriculture included in these models?

No, these models do not currently include regenerative agriculture practices as an input.

Is the circular economy included in these models?

These models include food waste as a driver to incorporate an aspect of the circular economy.

What parts of forestry and forest products are included in the modeling?

Model outputs include industrial roundwood (timber) and pulpwood.

Are Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) included in the modeling?

Yes, biofuels pathways are considered within each of the scenarios, including SAF.

To which other scenarios are these comparable?

>3°C Historic Trends ScenarioIPCC Scenario C6-C8
NGFS Current Policies
<2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR)NGFS Below 2°C
IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)
<2°C Coordinated Policy ScenarioNGFS Below 2°C
IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)
1.5°C Societal Transformation Scenario1.5C IPR Required Policy Scenario (RPS)
NGFS Net Zero 2050
IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)
FOLU’s Better Futures Scenario
1.5°C Innovation ScenarioIPR Required Policy Scenario (RPS)
NGFS Net Zero 2050
IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)

About the project team

The Climate Scenario Tool was developed by WBCSD with supporting analysis by Vivid Economics. We would like to thank PwC for developing guidance for companies with use cases and transition planning support and for project management assistance. We also thank the following stakeholders who graciously provided review and guidance during the scenario development and modeling process:

The Stakeholder Advisory Group, made up of the following organizations and experts, who helped ensure the comparability, consistency and usefulness of the scenarios and outputs. 

  • BSR
  • Climate Bonds Initiative
  • Orbitas
  • Tropical Forest Alliance
  • United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative
  • WWF

The Technical Advisory Group, who provided review and guidance regarding the assumptions and design of the scenarios.

  • Daniel Mason-D’Croz (Cornell University, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences)
  • Jonathan Doelman (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
  • Alexander Popp (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
  • Jan Dietrich (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

The Corporate Forum, a group of leading food, agriculture and forest products companies, who also helped guide and review the scenario creation process as well as provide feedback on the tool and its use; companies include:  

  • Bayer
  • Cargill
  • CMPC
  • Corteva
  • Danone
  • DSM
  • International Paper
  • Mondi
  • OFI
  • Rabobank
  • Tyson
  • Viterra
  • Weyerhaeuser

We would also like to thank the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment who supported the development of the Climate Scenario Tool.

This tool is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment.